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Aslan Research · Chips

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD (TSM)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 31 quarters · filed in TWD · outside the industry averages

Annual revenue of TWD 4.39 trillion grew 24% per year, while committed obligations grew 2% per year. That growth gap gives the obligation base a smaller scale than the revenue stream supporting it.

Revenue, last 12 mo NT$4.39T to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo — cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report NT$167B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised NT$167B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue NT$56B + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years NT$2.15T the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

revenue (qtr)deferredQ4 '18Q4 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26NT$667BNT$1.33T

Reports NT$167B of debt; has promised NT$167B

Committed money matches reported debt at 1.0x. All committed money is reported debt, so leases and purchase commitments add no amount beyond the debt figure.

promisedreported debtQ4 '18Q4 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26NT$555BNT$1.11T

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
100%
2021
100%
2022
100%
2023
100%
2024
100%

When the promises come due

The next five years carry TWD 2.15 trillion of obligations, against TWD 55.9 billion of deferred revenue already tied to future performance. Later obligations fall to TWD 3.2 billion in years five to ten and TWD 214 million beyond ten years.

NT$2.15Tnext 5 yearsNT$3.2Byears 5–10NT$214Mbeyond 10NT$0after yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 24% 2019-Q3 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr —
Promised money /yr 2%
Reported debt /yr 2%
Deferred revenue /yr 39%
Quarters re-stated 8 of 31 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

NT$0filed2018NT$0reality2018NT$536Bfiled2019NT$536Breality2019NT$617Bfiled2020NT$617Breality2020NT$729Bfiled2021NT$729Breality2021NT$930Bfiled2022NT$930Breality2022NT$977Bfiled2023NT$977Breality2023NT$1.29Tfiled2024NT$1.28Treality2024NT$1.63Tfiled2025NT$1.63Treality2025NT$1.26Tfiled2026NT$1.26Treality2026

40 patterns worth a second look

The filings describe company financing involving entities that also generate sales or appear as revenue counterparties. Six of 31 quarters changed through reconciliation, and several extracted revenue, debt, or operating-income figures were dropped after conflicting readings.

circular financing · 1

The filings report company financing to entities that also generate sales or appear as revenue counterparties.

extraction disagreement · 34

6-K tsm-6k_20210310.htm: the two extraction passes read revenue for 2021-02-28 as 106534000000 vs 106534000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tsm-ex991_7.htm: the two extraction passes read debt_long for 2020-12-31 as 256705084000 vs 254105084000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tsm-ex991_18.htm: the two extraction passes read debt_long for 2022-06-30 as 753889823000 vs 770949000; the figure was dropped.

+ 31 more

off balance sheet · 1

The filings report large guarantees of subsidiary debt and financing obligations alongside separate consolidated-company debt disclosures.

redefinition · 1

The filings change the reported scope of advanced technologies from 7-nanometer-and-more-advanced to a later presentation that includes 2-nanometer shipments.

related party exposure · 1

The filings repeatedly report material financing, guarantees, and sales involving wholly owned subsidiaries and related entities.

subsequent event · 1

The filings report earthquake losses after the reporting period that were recognized or expected to be recognized in subsequent quarters.

value revision · 1

The cash balance revision candidates are substantive period-to-period changes rather than clerical duplicates.

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