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Aslan Research · Chips

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD (TSM)

Data as of 2026-08-21 · 31 quarters · filed in TWD · outside the industry averages

Revenue grew 23% per year, while committed obligations grew 2% per year. That puts TWD 4.29 trillion of trailing-year revenue against TWD 167.4 billion of reported debt and commitments.

Revenue, last 12 mo NT$4.29T to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report NT$167B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised NT$167B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue NT$112B + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years NT$2.24T the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

revenue (qtr)deferredQ4 '18Q4 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26NT$638BNT$1.28T

Reports NT$167B of debt; has promised NT$167B

Committed money matches reported debt at 1.0x. The full TWD 167.4 billion of commitments is tied to debt, with no additional lease or purchase commitments identified here.

promisedreported debtQ4 '18Q4 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26NT$542BNT$1.08T

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
100%
2021
100%
2022
100%
2023
100%
2024
100%

When the promises come due

Most obligations fall within the next five years: TWD 2.24 trillion is due in that period. A further TWD 5 million is due in years five through ten, while deferred revenue tied to customer obligations is TWD 111.7 billion.

NT$2.24Tnext 5 yearsNT$5.5Myears 5–10NT$0beyond 10NT$0after yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 23% 2019-Q3 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr
Promised money /yr 2%
Reported debt /yr 2%
Deferred revenue /yr 64%
Quarters re-stated 12 of 31 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

NT$0filed2018NT$0reality2018NT$374Bfiled2019NT$374Breality2019NT$617Bfiled2020NT$617Breality2020NT$729Bfiled2021NT$729Breality2021NT$930Bfiled2022NT$930Breality2022NT$977Bfiled2023NT$977Breality2023NT$1.29Tfiled2024NT$1.29Treality2024NT$1.63Tfiled2025NT$1.63Treality2025NT$1.26Tfiled2026NT$1.26Treality2026

35 patterns worth a second look

The sharpest flag is repeated financing tied to TSMC Nanjing, a related-party operating entity within the group. The data review also dropped figures where extraction passes disagreed, including revenue and debt entries across multiple filings; 12 of 31 quarters changed through reconciliation.

circular financing · 1

The filings report repeated financing of TSMC Nanjing, which is also a related-party operating entity within the company group.

extraction disagreement · 29

6-K tsm-6k_20210310.htm: the two extraction passes read revenue for 2021-02-28 as 106534000000 vs 106534000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tsm-6k_20210310.htm: the two extraction passes read revenue for 2020-02-29 as 93394000000 vs 93394000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tsm-6k_20210310.htm: the two extraction passes read revenue for 2021-02-28 as 233283000000 vs 233283000; the figure was dropped.

+ 26 more

off balance sheet · 1

The filings report TSMC guarantees for substantial debt and operating obligations of TSMC Arizona and other subsidiaries.

redefinition · 1

The filings change the stated capital-budget range from US$15–16 billion in early 2020 to US$16–17 billion later in 2020.

related party exposure · 1

The filings repeatedly report material sales and receivables concentrated with TSMC North America, a wholly owned subsidiary.

subsequent event · 1

The FY2023 filing reports a subsequent earthquake loss estimated at NT$3 billion, later recognized in the second quarter of 2024.

value revision · 1

The cash-and-cash-equivalents revision candidates represent substantive period-to-period changes rather than clerical rounding.

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