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Aslan Research · Cloud & platforms

ORACLE CORP (ORCL)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 28 quarters · filed in USD

Oracle’s $638.0 billion backlog is 9.5x one year of revenue, making promised future work far larger than its current sales base. Revenue growth per year is 0% while expense growth per year is 23%, a sharp contrast in the latest trend indicators.

Revenue, last 12 mo $67B to 2026-05-31
Spend, last 12 mo $49B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $7.2B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $51B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $15B + $638B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $92B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogrevenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$335B$670B

Reports $7.2B of debt; has promised $51B

Total committed money is 7.0x reported debt. Leases account for $30.2 billion of commitments and purchases account for $13.3 billion, far beyond the $7.2 billion reported debt alone.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$27B$53B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
14%
60%
26%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
35%
54%
11%
2021
44%
61%
2022
41%
53%
2023
44%
53%
2024
45%
49%
2025
45%
47%
2026
45%
44%
11%

When the promises come due

The $91.6 billion due in the next 5 years is measured against $638.0 billion of backlog, while another $114.2 billion falls after year 5. This places a large share of commitments on a longer timetable than the near-term payment wall.

$92Bnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$114Bafter yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr -0% 2020-Q2 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr 23%
Promised money /yr 61%
Reported debt /yr 20%
Deferred revenue /yr 5%
Quarters re-stated 6 of 28 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$14Bfiled2019$14Breality2019$20Bfiled2020$20Breality2020$22Bfiled2021$22Breality2021$26Bfiled2022$25Breality2022$38Bfiled2023$27Breality2023$40Bfiled2024$40Breality2024$44Bfiled2025$44Breality2025$27Bfiled2026$27Breality2026

13 patterns worth a second look

The sharpest flag is Oracle’s rapidly increasing data-center lease commitments that had not commenced and were not recorded on the balance sheet, alongside guarantees of lessor borrowing. Filings also show material changes in the remaining-performance-obligation recognition profile and repeated SEC staff correspondence, including a reply quoting 5 staff comments.

off balance sheet · 1

Oracle reports rapidly increasing additional data-center lease commitments that had not commenced and were not recorded on the balance sheet, alongside guarantees of lessor borrowing.

one time dressing · 1

Restructuring charges and a tax-law-related expense are presented alongside recurring operating results as period expenses.

redefinition · 1

The remaining-performance-obligation recognition profile changes materially across filings, including a sharp change in the forward recognition horizon.

regulator challenge · 7

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2021-06-04, answering a staff comment letter dated 2021-05-25; it quotes 5 staff comments.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2023-09-19, answering a staff comment letter dated 2023-08-21; it quotes 3 staff comments.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2023-10-20, answering a staff comment letter dated 2023-10-06; it quotes 3 staff comments.

+ 4 more

related party exposure · 1

Oracle repeatedly reports substantial investments and financing with related-party investees, principally Ampere and later TikTok USDS.

subsequent event · 1

Subsequent filings report major financing and purchase commitments entered after the stated reporting dates.

vanishing item · 1

The FY2020 disclosure of approximately 135,000 full-time employees is not repeated in the later cataloged filings.

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