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Aslan Research · Chips

NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 29 quarters · filed in USD

Revenue growth outpaced expense growth, at 68% per year versus 67%, while committed obligations grew 48% per year. The trailing-year revenue base was $303.0 billion against $142.3 billion of expenses, giving those commitments a much larger operating scale.

Revenue, last 12 mo $303B to 2026-07-26
Spend, last 12 mo $142B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $33B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $39B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $6.4B + $3.2B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $180B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

revenue (qtr)deferredsigned backlogQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q3 '26$51B$101B

Reports $33B of debt; has promised $39B

Total committed money was 1.2x reported debt. The difference reflects $5.5 billion of leases beyond the $33.4 billion recorded as debt.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q3 '26$35B$70B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
86%
14%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
50%
34%
13%
2021
51%
32%
16%
2022
55%
31%
13%
2023
55%
35%
12%
2024
52%
27%
8%
13%
2025
54%
21%
19%
2026
58%
17%
20%

When the promises come due

The near-term payment wall is $179.7 billion over the next 5 years, while only $4.4 billion of revenue is promised over that period. That due-to-promised-revenue gap is 41.2x. Later obligations are $5.8 billion in years 5 to 10 and $6.0 billion beyond 10 years.

$180Bnext 5 years$5.8Byears 5–10$6.0Bbeyond 10$0after yr 5, undated$4.4Brevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 68% 2020-Q2 → 2026-Q3
Expense growth /yr 67%
Promised money /yr 48%
Reported debt /yr 50%
Deferred revenue /yr 67%
Quarters re-stated 7 of 29 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$4.2Bfiled2019$4.2Breality2019$8.7Bfiled2020$4.9Breality2020$16Bfiled2021$9.6Breality2021$21Bfiled2022$21Breality2022$26Bfiled2023$20Breality2023$52Bfiled2024$38Breality2024$94Bfiled2025$94Breality2025$115Bfiled2026$115Breality2026

11 patterns worth a second look

The filings disclose guarantees and uncommenced data-center leases that create obligations outside recorded debt and lease balances. They also show 13 XBRL facts reported at inconsistent scales across filings, and substantive diluted-share and diluted-EPS revisions tied to a two-for-one stock split factor.

off balance sheet · 1

The filings disclose guarantees and uncommenced data-center leases that create obligations outside recorded debt and lease balances.

one time dressing · 1

The filings present significant acquisition, inventory, warranty, and regulatory charges within reported operating results.

redefinition · 1

The Arm transaction consideration changes from 44.3 million shares valued at $21.5 billion to 177.5 million shares in subsequent filings.

regulator challenge · 4

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2022-09-19, answering a staff comment letter dated 2022-09-08; it quotes 0 staff comments.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2023-05-26, answering a staff comment letter dated 2023-03-03; it quotes 0 staff comments.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2023-06-29, answering a staff comment letter dated 2023-06-15; it quotes 3 staff comments.

+ 1 more

related party exposure · 1

The filings identify substantial revenue and receivables concentration among a small number of customers, while related-party insider trading arrangements are separately disclosed.

subsequent event · 1

The filings report material post-period share repurchases and dividend changes that affect the context of the preceding periods.

tagging quality · 1

13 XBRL facts were reported at inconsistent scales across filings (e.g. us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding).

value revision · 1

The attached diluted-share and diluted-EPS revisions are substantive rather than clerical because the revised values differ by a two-for-one stock split factor.

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