Aslan Terminal ← The industry paper

Aslan Research · Data centers

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)

Data as of 2026-08-21 · 12 quarters · filed in USD · RUB-era filings not charted

The filings show a sharp scale mismatch: $8.5 billion of reported debt sits against $1.3 billion of trailing-year revenue, while trailing-year expenses also reached $1.3 billion. Committed obligations fell -60% per year, according to the cataloged comparison.

Revenue, last 12 mo $1.3B to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo $1.3B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $8.5B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $8.5B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $979M + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $18B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogdeferredrevenue (qtr)Q3 '23Q2 '24Q1 '25Q3 '25Q2 '26$11B$22B

Reports $8.5B of debt; has promised $8.5B

Total committed money matches reported debt at 1.0x. The committed amount is entirely debt, with no additional lease or purchase commitments shown in the filing data.

promisedreported debtQ3 '23Q2 '24Q1 '25Q3 '25Q2 '26$93B$186B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
43%
18%
32%
2021
49%
14%
35%
2022
20%
40%
39%
2023
32%
59%
2024
11%
28%
62%
2025
23%
24%
52%

When the promises come due

The next five years carry $18.4 billion of debt coming due against $5.0 billion of future revenue promised for that period. That debt wall is 3.7x the promised revenue. Another $1.2 billion of debt falls due in years five to ten, with $482 million of debt undated after year five.

$18Bnext 5 years$1.2Byears 5–10$0beyond 10$482Mafter yr 5, undated$5.0Brevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 2024-Q2 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr
Promised money /yr -60%
Reported debt /yr 198%
Deferred revenue /yr -67%
Quarters re-stated 5 of 12 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$168Mfiled2023$168Mreality2023$460Mfiled2024$460Mreality2024$740Mfiled2025$740Mreality2025$821Mfiled2026$821Mreality2026

22 patterns worth a second look

The FY2025 filing reports $97.0 million of investment in Toloka Group and a $6.2 million loss tied to the remaining Toloka stake, but the catalog does not identify customer status. The extraction review also found disagreements affecting five of 12 quarters, including reported net income and capex figures that were dropped from the dataset.

circular financing · 1

The FY2025 filing reports $97.0 million of investment in Toloka Group and a $6.2 million loss related to the remaining Toloka stake; customer status is not identified in the catalog.

extraction disagreement · 11

6-K tm2515580d1_ex99-1.htm: the two extraction passes read net_income for 2024-03-31 as -80500000 vs -316500000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tm2522866d1_ex99-1.htm: the two extraction passes read net_income for 2024-06-30 as -116900000 vs -97500000; the figure was dropped.

6-K tm2522866d1_ex99-1.htm: the two extraction passes read net_income for 2025-06-30 as 502500000 vs 584400000; the figure was dropped.

+ 8 more

off balance sheet · 2

The FY2025 filing reports $9,759.6 million of executed leases not yet commenced; the FY2024 filing reported $168.0 million of additional operating leases not yet commenced.

The FY2025 filing reports $12,054.1 million of executed leases not yet commenced and $612.4 million of related prepayments.

related party exposure · 2

The FY2020 filing reports RUB 38 million of loans to senior employees and related-party revenues and expenses with Yandex.Market and Yandex.Money.

The FY2022 filing reports RUB 1,912 million of internet-acquiring commissions paid to VTB Bank and RUB 329 million of senior-employee loans.

subsequent event · 2

The FY2023 filing reports a planned RUB 475 billion sale of businesses representing more than 95% of 2023 consolidated revenue.

The FY2025 filing reports subsequent Meta commitments of approximately $12 billion and up to $15 billion for dedicated and additional compute capacity.

value revision · 4

The FY2022 comparative operating income is reported as RUB 16,249 million in one filing and RUB 15,671 million in the later filing; this is substantive.

The FY2022 comparative net income is reported as RUB 23,350 million in one filing and RUB 24,713 million in the later filing; this is substantive.

The FY2023 comparative 2022 operating income is reported as RUB 188.2 million and later as a RUB 158.0 million loss; this is substantive.

+ 1 more

← Back to the industry paper