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Aslan Research · Cloud & platforms

MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 28 quarters · filed in USD

Backlog stands at $684.0 billion, or 2.2x one year of revenue, giving the business a large base of promised work. Revenue grew 14% per year while expenses grew 18% per year, so costs expanded faster than sales over the period shown.

Revenue, last 12 mo $308B to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo $209B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $40B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $62B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $100B + $684B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $31B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogdeferredrevenue (qtr)Q3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$359B$718B

Reports $40B of debt; has promised $62B

Total committed money is 1.5x reported debt. The difference comes from $21.9 billion of leases in addition to $40.3 billion of reported debt.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$52B$104B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
65%
35%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
47%
20%
25%
9%
2021
48%
19%
23%
9%
2022
50%
19%
22%
9%
2023
47%
19%
22%
12%
2024
48%
19%
21%
13%
2025
50%
19%
19%
12%
2026
51%
17%
17%
15%

When the promises come due

The largest near-term wall is $31.5 billion due in the next 5 years, while $40.6 billion is scheduled after year 5 without a stated date. That timing leaves more committed money beyond year 5 than in the next 5 years.

$31Bnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$41Bafter yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 14% 2020-Q2 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr 18%
Promised money /yr -3%
Reported debt /yr -8%
Deferred revenue /yr 17%
Quarters re-stated 15 of 28 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$48Bfiled2019$41Breality2019$76Bfiled2020$61Breality2020$115Bfiled2021$94Breality2021$136Bfiled2022$99Breality2022$146Bfiled2023$105Breality2023$165Bfiled2024$121Breality2024$190Bfiled2025$186Breality2025$110Bfiled2026$110Breality2026

12 patterns worth a second look

The sharpest flag is the reported related-party exposure to OpenAI, with funding, revenue, and receivables tied to the same counterparty. Filings also describe datacenter leases not yet commenced, including finance leases outside current lease liabilities, and changed the remaining-performance-obligation recognition rate from approximately 40% to 25% over the next 12 months.

circular financing · 1

The FY2026 filing reports both funding commitments to OpenAI and revenue and receivables from the same related-party counterparty.

off balance sheet · 1

The filings report very large datacenter leases that had not yet commenced, including finance leases outside current lease liabilities.

one time dressing · 1

The filings separately present sizable discrete tax benefits and payments associated with transfers of intangible properties and tax decisions.

redefinition · 2

The filing changes the remaining-performance-obligation recognition rate from approximately 40% to 25% over the next 12 months.

The filings shift the presentation of OpenAI funding from an investment commitment to a related-party commitment with funded amounts disclosed.

regulator challenge · 4

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2021-03-02, answering a staff comment letter dated 2021-02-19; it quotes 0 staff comments.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2024-04-26, answering a staff comment letter dated 2021-02-19; it quotes 1 staff comment.

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2024-05-02, answering a staff comment letter dated 2024-05-01; it quotes 1 staff comment.

+ 1 more

related party exposure · 1

The FY2026 filing reports substantial related-party OpenAI funding, revenue, and receivables.

subsequent event · 1

A post-period OpenAI agreement introduced an incremental $250 billion Azure-services purchase commitment following the September 30, 2025 period.

vanishing item · 1

The FY2021 filing reports a four-year, $1 billion climate-solutions investment commitment that is not repeated in the later catalog entries.

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