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Aslan Research · Cloud & platforms

MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT)

Data as of 2026-08-21 · 28 quarters · filed in USD

Backlog stands at $684.0 billion, or 2.2x one year of revenue. Revenue grew 16% per year, faster than expenses at 14%, while committed obligations fell 3% per year.

Revenue, last 12 mo $316B to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo $209B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $40B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $62B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $76B + $684B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $32B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogrevenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$359B$718B

Reports $40B of debt; has promised $62B

Leases add $21.9 billion to the $40.3 billion of reported debt, bringing total committed obligations to 1.5x reported debt. The added commitment is mostly lease-related rather than additional borrowing.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q1 '23Q3 '24Q2 '26$44B$87B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
65%
35%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
47%
20%
25%
9%
2021
48%
19%
23%
9%
2022
50%
19%
22%
9%
2023
47%
19%
22%
12%
2024
48%
19%
21%
13%
2025
50%
19%
19%
12%
2026
51%
17%
17%
15%

When the promises come due

The next five years bring $32.5 billion of committed payments against $6.0 billion of revenue promised for that period. That creates a 5.5x gap between payments due and revenue promised.

$32Bnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$41Bafter yr 5, undated$6.0Brevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 16% 2020-Q2 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr 14%
Promised money /yr -3%
Reported debt /yr -8%
Deferred revenue /yr 13%
Quarters re-stated 10 of 28 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$48Bfiled2019$48Breality2019$76Bfiled2020$75Breality2020$115Bfiled2021$115Breality2021$136Bfiled2022$136Breality2022$146Bfiled2023$132Breality2023$165Bfiled2024$144Breality2024$190Bfiled2025$190Breality2025$110Bfiled2026$110Breality2026

7 patterns worth a second look

The filings show a related-party exposure involving OpenAI: $13.0 billion of funded commitment, $24.1 billion of revenue, and $6.0 billion of receivables. They also report substantial datacenter leases that had not yet commenced, changing recognition percentages, large discrete tax benefits and charges, and a $1 billion climate-solutions investment that is not subsequently represented in the catalog.

circular financing · 1

The FY2026 filing reports Microsoft funding OpenAI while also recording revenue and receivables from OpenAI.

off balance sheet · 1

The filings repeatedly report substantial datacenter leases that had not yet commenced.

one time dressing · 1

The filings present large discrete tax benefits and charges in reported income-tax results.

redefinition · 1

The expected 12-month recognition percentage for remaining performance obligations changed from approximately 50% to 45%, then 40%, 25%, and 30%.

related party exposure · 1

The FY2026 filing reports $13.0 billion funded commitment, $24.1 billion of revenue, and $6.0 billion of receivables involving OpenAI.

subsequent event · 1

The Q1 FY2026 filing reports an October 28, 2025 OpenAI agreement for an incremental $250 billion of Azure purchases.

vanishing item · 1

The FY2020 filing reports a $1 billion climate-solutions investment over four years, which is not subsequently represented in the catalog.

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