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Aslan Research · Chips

INTEL CORP (INTC)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 25 quarters · filed in USD

Revenue fell 6% per year while expenses fell 1% per year, showing a weaker top line against a slower cost decline. The filings also show $50.5 billion of reported debt against $57.0 billion of trailing-year revenue, putting the debt load close to annual sales.

Revenue, last 12 mo $57B to 2026-06-27
Spend, last 12 mo $54B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $51B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $51B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $0 + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $7.8B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

revenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q2 '21Q2 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$11B$22B

Reports $51B of debt; has promised $51B

Committed money matches reported debt at 1.0x. All $50.5 billion of committed money is reported debt, with no additional lease or purchase commitments in the disclosed split.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q2 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$30B$60B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
59%
23%
11%
2021
60%
26%
11%
2022
60%
29%
12%
2023
61%
30%
11%
2024
54%
25%
8%
12%
2025
63%
25%
8%

When the promises come due

The largest near-term pressure is $7.8 billion due in the next 5y against $429 million of future revenue promised over the same period. That gap gives the near-term maturity wall far more weight than the revenue already contracted.

$7.8Bnext 5 years$1.8Byears 5–10$1.7Bbeyond 10$100Mafter yr 5, undated$429Mrevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr -6% 2020-Q4 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr -1%
Promised money /yr 8%
Reported debt /yr 9%
Deferred revenue /yr -2%
Quarters re-stated 5 of 25 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$13Bfiled2019$13Breality2019$58Bfiled2020$58Breality2020$59Bfiled2021$59Breality2021$47Bfiled2022$47Breality2022$42Bfiled2023$42Breality2023$66Bfiled2024$66Breality2024$54Bfiled2025$50Breality2025$27Bfiled2026$27Breality2026

11 patterns worth a second look

The filings show multiple areas needing close review, led by a regulator challenge that quotes 4 staff comments. They also report customer deposits and supplier prepayments tied to later revenue, unrecognized construction commitments and VIE assets unavailable through SCIP arrangements, and a change in the scope and presentation of capital-expenditure commitments across periods.

circular financing · 1

The filings report customer deposits and supplier prepayments that fund future supply commitments while related revenue is recognized later.

off balance sheet · 1

The filings report unrecognized construction commitments and VIE assets unavailable to Intel through SCIP arrangements.

one time dressing · 1

The filings identify material customer incentives as contributors to reported revenue in separate periods.

redefinition · 1

The filings change the scope and presentation of capital-expenditure commitments across periods.

regulator challenge · 1

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2025-06-12, answering a staff comment letter dated 2025-06-02; it quotes 4 staff comments.

related party exposure · 1

The filings report substantial commitments, restricted assets, and revenue involving jointly owned or related entities.

subsequent event · 1

The March 2026 filing reports an April 2026 acquisition financed with a newly drawn $6.5 billion term loan.

value revision · 4

The operating-cash-flow revision from $35.384 billion to $35.864 billion is substantive rather than clerical.

The operating-cash-flow revision from $29.991 billion to $29.456 billion is substantive rather than clerical.

The operating-income revision from $3.641 billion to negative $2.484 billion is substantive rather than clerical.

+ 1 more

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