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Aslan Research · Chips

INTEL CORP (INTC)

Data as of 2026-08-21 · 25 quarters · filed in USD

Revenue fell 5% per year while expenses fell 1% per year, leaving less room between the two. The scale is notable against $50.5 billion of reported debt and $57.0 billion of trailing-year revenue.

Revenue, last 12 mo $57B to 2026-06-27
Spend, last 12 mo $54B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $51B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $51B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $0 + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $20B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

revenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q2 '21Q2 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$11B$22B

Reports $51B of debt; has promised $51B

Committed money matches reported debt at 1.0x. The filing identifies the full $50.5 billion of committed money as debt, with no additional lease or purchase commitments in this comparison.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q2 '21Q2 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$32B$64B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
59%
23%
11%
2021
60%
26%
11%
2022
60%
29%
12%
2023
61%
30%
11%
2024
54%
25%
8%
12%
2025
63%
25%
8%

When the promises come due

The next five years bring $20.2 billion of debt maturities against just $429 million of future revenue promised for that period. That mismatch is 47.2x, while another $31.8 billion is due after year five.

$20Bnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$32Bafter yr 5, undated$429Mrevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr -5% 2020-Q4 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr -1%
Promised money /yr 8%
Reported debt /yr 9%
Deferred revenue /yr -60%
Quarters re-stated 7 of 25 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$13Bfiled2019$13Breality2019$58Bfiled2020$58Breality2020$59Bfiled2021$59Breality2021$47Bfiled2022$47Breality2022$42Bfiled2023$42Breality2023$66Bfiled2024$55Breality2024$54Bfiled2025$50Breality2025$27Bfiled2026$27Breality2026

15 patterns worth a second look

The largest disclosed off-balance-sheet item is Intel's unrecognized $29.0 billion commitment for its share of Arizona SCIP construction costs. The filing also reports $1.7 billion of customer deposits supporting future supply and $934 million prepaid to suppliers in the same period, plus $1.5 billion of receivables sold through non-recourse factoring in the first six months of 2023.

circular financing · 1

Intel reports customer deposits and supplier prepayments in the same period, with $1.7 billion of customer deposits supporting future supply and $934 million prepaid to suppliers.

off balance sheet · 2

Intel reports an unrecognized $29.0 billion commitment for its share of Arizona SCIP construction costs while Arizona SCIP assets are restricted to the VIE's obligations.

Intel reports $1.5 billion of first-six-month 2023 receivables sold under non-recourse factoring arrangements.

one time dressing · 2

Intel reports customer incentives contributing approximately $1.0 billion to Q2 2022 revenue and approximately $900 million to Q1 2023 revenue.

Intel reports a $1.1 billion special McAfee dividend and $228 million from a partial sale in 2021 investment results.

redefinition · 1

The commercial-paper authorization remains $10.0 billion, while later filings separately report drawn commercial paper and changing credit-facility commitments.

related party exposure · 2

Intel reports recurring receivables and service reimbursements with the deconsolidated NAND OpCo Business.

Intel reports $3.2 billion invested in related-party Altera and $320 million of wafer-manufacturing revenue from Altera in the first six months of 2026.

subsequent event · 3

The FY2025 filing reports that Intel subsequently received $922 million from a July 11, 2025 Mobileye secondary offering.

The FY2026 first-quarter filing reports Intel's April 8, 2026 acquisition of Apollo's 49% Ireland SCIP interest for $14.2 billion.

The FY2026 first-quarter filing reports an April 2026 draw of $6.5 billion under a senior unsecured term loan facility.

value revision · 4

The FY2020 filing reports SG&A of $6.35 billion for the comparative period versus $6.15 billion in the FY2019 filing.

The FY2023 filing reports operating cash flow of $29.456 billion for FY2021 versus $29.991 billion in the FY2022 filing.

The FY2024 filing reports revenue of $24.664 billion for the six months ended July 2, 2022 versus $33.674 billion in the FY2022 filing.

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