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INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 27 quarters · filed in USD

IBM’s backlog is $68.0 billion, nearly matching one year of revenue at a 1.0x backlog-to-revenue ratio. Revenue fell -1% per year while expenses fell -5% per year, so the cost base declined faster than sales.

Revenue, last 12 mo $69B to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo $50B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $62B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $68B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $0 + $68B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $27B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogrevenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q3 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$65B$130B

Reports $62B of debt; has promised $68B

Total committed money is 1.1x reported debt. The difference includes $3.3 billion of lease commitments alongside $62.0 billion of debt.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q3 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$39B$78B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
95%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
49%
13%
41%
2021
50%
13%
37%
2022
53%
13%
36%
2023
51%
12%
35%
2024
50%
14%
36%
2025
50%
15%
36%

When the promises come due

The next five years carry $27.0 billion of commitments against backlog covering 1.0x one year of revenue. Another $974 million of commitments comes due after year five.

$27Bnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$974Mafter yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr -1% 2020-Q4 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr -5%
Promised money /yr -1%
Reported debt /yr -1%
Deferred revenue /yr 38%
Quarters re-stated 10 of 27 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$16Bfiled2019$16Breality2019$67Bfiled2020$67Breality2020$51Bfiled2021$50Breality2021$52Bfiled2022$52Breality2022$55Bfiled2023$54Breality2023$54Bfiled2024$48Breality2024$56Bfiled2025$56Breality2025$29Bfiled2026$22Breality2026

8 patterns worth a second look

The filings separately identify a one-time, non-cash income-tax charge of approximately $300 million. They also disclose financing receivables pledged for nonrecourse borrowings, a secured borrowing settled through a swap and equity exchange, and client-financing commitments alongside financing receivables and sales to third-party investors.

circular financing · 1

IBM reports client financing commitments alongside financing receivables and sales of commercial financing receivables to third-party investors.

off balance sheet · 1

IBM discloses financing receivables pledged for nonrecourse borrowings and a secured borrowing settled through a swap and equity exchange.

one time dressing · 1

The 2025 third-quarter filing separately identifies a one-time, non-cash income-tax charge of approximately $300 million.

redefinition · 1

The disclosed maturity of the revolving credit agreements changes across filings while the facility amounts remain $2.5 billion and $7.5 billion.

regulator challenge · 1

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2022-10-07, answering a staff comment letter dated 2022-09-02; it quotes 3 staff comments.

related party exposure · 1

IBM reports material commitments and transactions involving Kyndryl and wholly owned finance subsidiaries.

subsequent event · 1

The 2021 third-quarter filing reports Kyndryl debt raised before separation and states it was no longer an IBM obligation after separation.

value revision · 1

The FY2022 filing reports substantially revised 2019 and 2020 income-statement and balance-sheet values versus the earlier filings.

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