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INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP (IBM)

Data as of 2026-08-21 · 27 quarters · filed in USD

IBM’s backlog nearly matches one year of revenue: $68.0 billion versus $69.1 billion. Revenue fell -1% per year while expenses fell -3% per year, so the business is shrinking on both sides of the income statement.

Revenue, last 12 mo $69B to 2026-06-30
Spend, last 12 mo $58B cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report $62B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised $65B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue $0 + $68B signed backlog
Due in next 5 years $1.04T the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogrevenue (qtr)deferredQ3 '19Q3 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$65B$130B

Reports $62B of debt; has promised $65B

Total committed money is 1.1x reported debt. Leases add $3.3 billion to the $62.0 billion of reported debt, bringing total commitments to $65.3 billion.

promisedreported debtQ3 '19Q3 '21Q1 '23Q4 '24Q2 '26$38B$75B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
95%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
49%
13%
41%
2021
50%
13%
37%
2022
53%
13%
36%
2023
51%
12%
35%
2024
50%
14%
36%
2025
50%
15%
36%

When the promises come due

The next five years carry $1.04 trillion of scheduled commitments against $33.6 billion of future revenue promised for that period. The filings also show $974 million of commitments due after year five without a matching future-revenue figure.

$1.04Tnext 5 years$0years 5–10$0beyond 10$974Mafter yr 5, undated$34Brevenue promised to them

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr -1% 2020-Q4 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr -3%
Promised money /yr -1%
Reported debt /yr -1%
Deferred revenue /yr -4%
Quarters re-stated 5 of 27 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

$16Bfiled2019$16Breality2019$67Bfiled2020$67Breality2020$51Bfiled2021$51Breality2021$52Bfiled2022$52Breality2022$55Bfiled2023$55Breality2023$54Bfiled2024$52Breality2024$56Bfiled2025$54Breality2025$29Bfiled2026$29Breality2026

8 patterns worth a second look

The filings disclose seller financing to Francisco Partners alongside recorded sale proceeds and contingent consideration from the same buyer. They also report financing receivables sold and derecognized that remained uncollected from business partners, plus one-time gains from asset divestitures within reported revenue. Credit-agreement maturity dates were extended across successive filings while facility amounts remained unchanged.

circular financing · 1

IBM provided seller financing to Francisco Partners while recording sale proceeds and contingent consideration from the same buyer.

off balance sheet · 1

IBM disclosed financing receivables sold and derecognized that remained uncollected from business partners.

one time dressing · 1

The filings report significant one-time gains from asset divestitures within reported revenue.

redefinition · 1

Credit-agreement maturity dates were extended across successive filings while facility amounts remained unchanged.

related party exposure · 1

IBM disclosed substantial guaranteed debt issued by its related subsidiary IBM International Capital Pte. Ltd.

subsequent event · 1

The Confluent acquisition and settlement of acquired short-term debt occurred after the March 31, 2026 reporting date.

value revision · 2

The FY2022 filing presents revised 2019 and 2020 income-statement values versus the corresponding annual filings.

The FY2022 filing presents revised 2021 quarterly and year-to-date income-statement values versus the corresponding 2021 quarterly filings.

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