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Aslan Research · Chip equipment

ASML HOLDING NV (ASML)

Data as of 2026-09-03 · 29 quarters · filed in EUR · outside the industry averages

Revenue of €21.2 billion is nearly six times reported debt of €3.7 billion, giving the balance sheet a large operating scale. But expenses are growing at 14% per year, faster than revenue growth of 10% per year.

Revenue, last 12 mo €21B to 2026-06-28
Spend, last 12 mo — cost + R&D + admin + tax
Debt they report €3.7B balance-sheet borrowings
Money promised €3.7B debt + leases + purchases
Unrealized revenue €7.1B + — signed backlog
Due in next 5 years €15B the obligation wall

Earned, collected early, and merely signed

signed backlogdeferredrevenue (qtr)Q4 '18Q3 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26€24B€49B

Reports €3.7B of debt; has promised €3.7B

Total committed money is €3.7 billion, all tied to debt. That matches reported debt at 1.0x, so the commitments add no disclosed lease or purchase obligations beyond debt.

promisedreported debtQ4 '18Q3 '20Q3 '22Q3 '24Q2 '26€2.6B€5.1B

What the promised total is made of, latest quarter

debtleasespurchase deals
today
100%

Spending, by reported line

Cost of revenueR&DSelling & adminTax
2020
69%
21%
2021
67%
19%
2022
67%
21%
2023
67%
20%
2024
66%
21%
8%
2025
66%
20%
9%

When the promises come due

The next five years carry €14.6 billion of obligations, versus €7.1 billion of deferred revenue already promised to the company. Another €507 million is due after year five, with no matching deferred-revenue figure provided.

€15Bnext 5 years€0years 5–10€0beyond 10€507Mafter yr 5, undated

The rates that matter

Revenue growth /yr 10% 2019-Q3 → 2026-Q2
Expense growth /yr 14%
Promised money /yr 3%
Reported debt /yr 3%
Deferred revenue /yr 27%
Quarters re-stated 7 of 29 by cited reconciliation

Expenses as filed vs after cited reconciliation

€2.3Bfiled2018€2.3Breality2018€8.8Bfiled2019€8.8Breality2019€9.4Bfiled2020€9.4Breality2020€11Bfiled2021€11Breality2021€10Bfiled2022€10Breality2022€8.7Bfiled2023€8.7Breality2023€14Bfiled2024€14Breality2024€14Bfiled2025€14Breality2025€5.1Bfiled2026€5.1Breality2026

77 patterns worth a second look

The filings show company financing and equity investment in parties that also appear as sources of revenue or operating returns. Six of 29 quarters changed through reconciliation, while several historical cash, revenue, cost-of-revenue, and gross-profit figures were dropped after extraction disagreements.

circular financing · 1

The filings show company financing and equity investment in parties that also appear as sources of revenue or operating returns.

extraction disagreement · 68

6-K a20200415q1presentationf.htm: the two extraction passes read cash for 2019-03-31 as 2253000000 vs 3275000000; the figure was dropped.

6-K a20200415q1presentationf.htm: the two extraction passes read cash for 2019-06-30 as 1661000000 vs 2335000000; the figure was dropped.

6-K a20200415q1presentationf.htm: the two extraction passes read cash for 2019-09-30 as 1586000000 vs 2070000000; the figure was dropped.

+ 65 more

off balance sheet · 1

The filings report factoring of customer receivables and parental or guarantee facilities that transfer or support obligations outside ordinary debt balances.

one time dressing · 1

The filings present substantial one-time or non-recurring investment and financing flows alongside recurring operating metrics.

redefinition · 3

The 2025 filing reports the 2022-2025 buyback program finished at EUR 7.6 billion, whereas earlier filings described it as up to EUR 12.0 billion through December 2025.

The 2024 filing reports a committed revolving credit facility of EUR 1.5 billion through 2029, compared with EUR 700 million through 2026 in prior filings.

The 2025 filing increases available non-committed credit lines from EUR 2.75 billion to EUR 3.0 billion.

regulator challenge · 1

A reply to SEC staff was filed on 2020-05-20, answering a staff comment letter dated 2020-05-08; it quotes 2 staff comments.

related party exposure · 1

The filings report increasing financing, advance payments, purchases, and other exposure to related party Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH.

subsequent event · 1

The 2023 filing reports the 2022 dividend as a subsequent event after the reporting period.

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