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This report was generated by AI and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. AI-identified events and simulated trades may be inaccurate or incomplete. Past hypothetical performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.
Report #Z567LZ High Conviction Invalid Date

Buy Tesla stocks any time Microsoft stock price goes up

Total Return −16.2%
Win Rate
47% 17 Trades
Max Drawdown −18.1%
Events Found
9 2 tickers

Cumulative Equity Curve

Jan 21May 22Sep 23Dec 24Apr 26$41,318$44,769$48,220$51,672
Avg Win +1.9%
Avg Loss −5.3%
Hold Period 9 days
Profit Factor 0.32
Final Value $41,879
Data Quality Tier 1
Phase 01 — Analysis

Research Narrative

AI Generated

**AI-generated analysis**

This event describes a simple conditional trading idea: buy Tesla (TSLA) whenever Microsoft (MSFT) finishes higher than it started for a given period. In other words, it tests whether positive price moves in MSFT can be used as a signal to enter TSLA. These kinds of events are often used in market research to see whether one stock’s short-term strength coincides with, or helps predict, another stock’s subsequent performance.

MSFT and TSLA were chosen because they are both large, highly followed U.S. equities, but they belong to different market styles. Microsoft is typically viewed as a large-cap, more stable technology leader, while Tesla is generally more volatile and sentiment-driven. That contrast makes them a useful pair for testing whether broad risk-on behavior in a mega-cap tech name like MSFT has any meaningful relationship with returns in a more volatile stock like TSLA.

The historical pattern is not supportive of the strategy. The event occurred 18 times, and the total return across those occurrences was -16.24%, indicating that buying TSLA after MSFT rose did not produce a positive aggregate result. Instead, the pattern suggests that this signal has been weak or inconsistent, with the observed outcomes leaning negative overall rather than showing a reliable edge.

Thesis Configuration

Buy Tesla stocks any time Microsoft stock price goes up

Signal Confirmation Market open next trading day
Exit Logic Impact window end date (Moderate)
Positioning Long · $25,000 per trade
Time Horizon Jan 2021 – Apr 2026
Tickers MSFT, TSLA
Events Found 18 (High: 18, Medium: 0)
Phase 02 — Data

Asset Breakdown

TSLA -1.7% 50% WR · 8 trades
MSFT -2.1% 44% WR · 9 trades
#DATETICKERDIRENTRY DATEENTRY $EXIT DATEEXIT $DAYSP&L $P&L %vs SPY
12021.01.20MSFTShort2021.01.21$214.852021.03.03$218.5928−$434.414−1.7%+4.7%
22021.01.26MSFTShort2021.01.27$227.602021.02.23$224.0118+$394.15+1.6%+1.3%
32021.06.22MSFTShort2021.06.23$255.482021.06.25$255.172+$30.27+0.1%−0.5%
42021.07.27MSFTShort2021.07.28$277.622021.08.05$278.696−$96.022−0.4%−0.0%
52021.09.15MSFTShort2021.09.16$292.472021.09.20$283.982+$725.17+2.9%+0.2%
62021.10.05MSFTShort2021.10.06$274.932021.11.15$324.3328−$4,491.903−18.0%+8.6%
72021.10.27MSFTShort2021.10.28$312.112021.12.08$323.6628−$925.623−3.7%+5.2%
82021.10.29MSFTShort2021.11.01$319.032021.12.06$315.2724+$294.305+1.2%+0.6%
92026.04.15MSFTShort2026.04.16$419.562026.04.17$424.801−$312.793−1.3%+5.7%
102021.01.20TSLALong2021.01.21$285.102021.01.25$293.662+$749.832+3.0%+2.9%
112021.01.26TSLALong2021.01.27$290.482021.01.28$278.481−$1,032.682−4.1%−3.4%
122021.07.27TSLALong2021.07.28$215.942021.07.29$225.541+$1,112.427+4.4%+3.1%
132021.09.15TSLALong2021.09.16$251.052021.09.20$243.192−$783.131−3.1%+0.1%
142021.10.05TSLALong2021.10.06$259.012021.10.11$263.623+$444.712+1.8%−0.1%
152021.10.27TSLALong2021.10.28$356.442021.11.09$340.798−$1,097.477−4.4%−0.5%
162021.10.29TSLALong2021.11.01$382.132021.11.09$340.796−$2,704.753−10.8%−5.7%
172026.04.15TSLALong2026.04.16$394.072026.04.17$394.191+$7.089+0.0%+6.3%
Intelligence Feed / Sources Cited
  • Source A Nasdaq  ·  "Stock Market News for Jan 20, 2021 | Nasdaq"  ·  ↗ nasdaq.com
  • Source B Reuters  ·  "US STOCKS Wall Street closes at record highs as Netflix jumps, Biden inaugurated | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source C Cnbc  ·  "Microsoft (MSFT) earnings Q2 2021"  ·  ↗ cnbc.com
  • Source D Reuters  ·  "Microsoft earnings rise as pandemic boosts cloud computing, Xbox sales | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source E Investors  ·  "Microsoft Smashes December-Quarter Sales, Earnings Targets On Cloud Strength"  ·  ↗ investors.com
  • Source F Reuters  ·  "Nasdaq ends at record high as Big Tech companies roar back | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source G Reuters  ·  "Microsoft sees steady cloud growth after record quarterly profit | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source H Cnbc  ·  "Microsoft (MSFT) earnings Q4 2021"  ·  ↗ cnbc.com
  • Source I Reuters  ·  "Microsoft shares edge higher on $60 bln buyback program | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source J Reuters  ·  "Wall Street closes sharply higher as Big Tech roars back | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source K Reuters  ·  "Microsoft nearly overtakes Apple as most valuable company | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source L Cnbc  ·  "Alphabet and Microsoft rise to records after Q3 2021 earnings"  ·  ↗ cnbc.com
  • Source M Reuters  ·  "Wall Street recovers from early lows on Microsoft boost | Reuters"  ·  ↗ reuters.com
  • Source N Fool  ·  "Why Microsoft Stock Popped Today | The Motley Fool"  ·  ↗ fool.com
  • Source O Cnbc  ·  "Tesla stock adds nearly 8% as Elon Musk touts chip progress"  ·  ↗ cnbc.com
  • Source P Facebook  ·  "Tesla and Microsoft posting their best days and on pace ... - Facebook"  ·  ↗ facebook.com

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Appendix — Evidence

Historical Event Log

2021-01-20 · HIGH

Microsoft shares gained 1.8% as U.S. stocks closed higher and tech stocks rallied.

↗ Nasdaq · "Stock Market News for Jan 20, 2021 | Nasdaq"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +73.2% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-01-21 $214.85
Exit 2021-03-03 $218.59
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −1.7% −$434.414
Entry 2021-01-21 $285.10
Exit 2021-01-25 $293.66
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +3.0% +$749.832
2021-01-26 · HIGH

Microsoft stock jumped in extended trading after fiscal second-quarter earnings beat expectations.

↗ Cnbc · "Microsoft (MSFT) earnings Q2 2021"

Duration: 20d · Peak CAR: +70.4% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-01-27 $227.60
Exit 2021-02-23 $224.01
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +1.6% +$394.15
Entry 2021-01-27 $290.48
Exit 2021-01-28 $278.48
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −4.1% −$1,032.682
2021-06-22 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose 1.1% as the Nasdaq hit a record high and growth stocks rallied.

↗ Reuters · "Nasdaq ends at record high as Big Tech companies roar back |…"

Duration: 4d · Peak CAR: +108.1% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-06-23 $255.48
Exit 2021-06-25 $255.17
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +0.1% +$30.27
2021-07-27 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose in extended trading after reporting better-than-expected earnings and guidance.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft sees steady cloud growth after record quarterly pr…"

Duration: 8d · Peak CAR: +106.5% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-07-28 $277.62
Exit 2021-08-05 $278.69
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −0.4% −$96.022
Entry 2021-07-28 $215.94
Exit 2021-07-29 $225.54
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +4.4% +$1,112.427
2021-09-15 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose 1% after announcing a $60 billion share repurchase program.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft shares edge higher on $60 bln buyback program | Re…"

Duration: 4d · Peak CAR: +94.2% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-09-16 $292.47
Exit 2021-09-20 $283.98
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +2.9% +$725.17
Entry 2021-09-16 $251.05
Exit 2021-09-20 $243.19
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −3.1% −$783.131
2021-10-05 · HIGH

Microsoft was among the big tech leaders that rose more than 1% in a broad market rebound.

↗ Reuters · "Wall Street closes sharply higher as Big Tech roars back | R…"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +86.0% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-10-06 $274.93
Exit 2021-11-15 $324.33
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −18.0% −$4,491.903
Entry 2021-10-06 $259.01
Exit 2021-10-11 $263.62
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +1.8% +$444.712
2021-10-27 · HIGH

Microsoft jumped 4.2% to a record high after strong Azure-driven quarterly results.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft nearly overtakes Apple as most valuable company | …"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +27.8% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-10-28 $312.11
Exit 2021-12-08 $323.66
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −3.7% −$925.623
Entry 2021-10-28 $356.44
Exit 2021-11-09 $340.79
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −4.4% −$1,097.477
2021-10-29 · HIGH

Microsoft shares touched a record high and helped pull the market higher after Apple and Amazon disappointed.

↗ Reuters · "Wall Street recovers from early lows on Microsoft boost | Re…"

Duration: 26d · Peak CAR: +23.5% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-11-01 $319.03
Exit 2021-12-06 $315.27
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +1.2% +$294.305
Entry 2021-11-01 $382.13
Exit 2021-11-09 $340.79
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −10.8% −$2,704.753
2026-04-15 · HIGH

Microsoft rose more than 4% and Tesla also had a strong rally on the same trading day.

↗ Fool · "Why Microsoft Stock Popped Today | The Motley Fool"

Duration: 3d · Peak CAR: +6.9% · Mean reversion

Entry 2026-04-16 $419.56
Exit 2026-04-17 $424.80
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −1.3% −$312.793
Entry 2026-04-16 $394.07
Exit 2026-04-17 $394.19
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +0.0% +$7.089
2021-01-20 · HIGH

Microsoft shares gained 1.8% as U.S. stocks closed higher and tech stocks rallied.

↗ Nasdaq · "Stock Market News for Jan 20, 2021 | Nasdaq"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +73.2% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-01-21 $214.85
Exit 2021-03-03 $218.59
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −1.7% −$434.414
Entry 2021-01-21 $285.10
Exit 2021-01-25 $293.66
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +3.0% +$749.832
2021-01-26 · HIGH

Microsoft stock jumped in extended trading after fiscal second-quarter earnings beat expectations.

↗ Cnbc · "Microsoft (MSFT) earnings Q2 2021"

Duration: 20d · Peak CAR: +70.4% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-01-27 $227.60
Exit 2021-02-23 $224.01
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +1.6% +$394.15
Entry 2021-01-27 $290.48
Exit 2021-01-28 $278.48
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −4.1% −$1,032.682
2021-06-22 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose 1.1% as the Nasdaq hit a record high and growth stocks rallied.

↗ Reuters · "Nasdaq ends at record high as Big Tech companies roar back |…"

Duration: 4d · Peak CAR: +108.1% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-06-23 $255.48
Exit 2021-06-25 $255.17
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +0.1% +$30.27
2021-07-27 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose in extended trading after reporting better-than-expected earnings and guidance.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft sees steady cloud growth after record quarterly pr…"

Duration: 8d · Peak CAR: +106.5% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-07-28 $277.62
Exit 2021-08-05 $278.69
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −0.4% −$96.022
Entry 2021-07-28 $215.94
Exit 2021-07-29 $225.54
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +4.4% +$1,112.427
2021-09-15 · HIGH

Microsoft shares rose 1% after announcing a $60 billion share repurchase program.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft shares edge higher on $60 bln buyback program | Re…"

Duration: 4d · Peak CAR: +94.2% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-09-16 $292.47
Exit 2021-09-20 $283.98
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +2.9% +$725.17
Entry 2021-09-16 $251.05
Exit 2021-09-20 $243.19
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −3.1% −$783.131
2021-10-05 · HIGH

Microsoft was among the big tech leaders that rose more than 1% in a broad market rebound.

↗ Reuters · "Wall Street closes sharply higher as Big Tech roars back | R…"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +86.0% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-10-06 $274.93
Exit 2021-11-15 $324.33
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −18.0% −$4,491.903
Entry 2021-10-06 $259.01
Exit 2021-10-11 $263.62
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +1.8% +$444.712
2021-10-27 · HIGH

Microsoft jumped 4.2% to a record high after strong Azure-driven quarterly results.

↗ Reuters · "Microsoft nearly overtakes Apple as most valuable company | …"

Duration: 30d · Peak CAR: +27.8% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-10-28 $312.11
Exit 2021-12-08 $323.66
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −3.7% −$925.623
Entry 2021-10-28 $356.44
Exit 2021-11-09 $340.79
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −4.4% −$1,097.477
2021-10-29 · HIGH

Microsoft shares touched a record high and helped pull the market higher after Apple and Amazon disappointed.

↗ Reuters · "Wall Street recovers from early lows on Microsoft boost | Re…"

Duration: 26d · Peak CAR: +23.5% · Mean reversion

Entry 2021-11-01 $319.03
Exit 2021-12-06 $315.27
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L +1.2% +$294.305
Entry 2021-11-01 $382.13
Exit 2021-11-09 $340.79
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L −10.8% −$2,704.753
2026-04-15 · HIGH

Microsoft rose more than 4% and Tesla also had a strong rally on the same trading day.

↗ Fool · "Why Microsoft Stock Popped Today | The Motley Fool"

Duration: 3d · Peak CAR: +6.9% · Mean reversion

Entry 2026-04-16 $419.56
Exit 2026-04-17 $424.80
Ticker MSFT
Direction Short
P&L −1.3% −$312.793
Entry 2026-04-16 $394.07
Exit 2026-04-17 $394.19
Ticker TSLA
Direction Long
P&L +0.0% +$7.089
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